Will Facebook lose 80% of its users by 2017?
- Thread starter Marc
- Start date
Claes Gefvenberg
Admin
It may, if something the users perceive as better comes along. I seem to recall, though, that some people said basically the same thing about the internet itself when it entered the scene. Time will tell...
Hard to tell, of course, but I have been reading that younger people are abandoning it. There are differing opinions: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/21/teens-are-leaving-facebook-but-does-it-matter.aspx
Younger abandon it when they realize their parent's generation have taken it on board. Put it this way, when you were young and you went to say a youth club to meet mates and get up to stuff away from parents. Then one day they open up a room for parents to also play pool and hang out. Would you stay?!
Since I believe the young are often the ones who find and populate the next new thing online. Once that new thing becomes old and the users average age increases it is almost a must that they move on.
TBH I only go on facebook when I am filling in time. Say near the end of a train short journey home when it is dark outside and all my emails are replied too. I then go into Facebook to fill in the last few minutes of the journey. I never find anything of interest. All my true friends have gone back to the phone or email or actually physically meeting up with me. Imagine that in the modern, internet age!! People meeting up!
It would not bother me one bit if they failed. In fact i would be interested to know what, if anything, takes its place!
Since I believe the young are often the ones who find and populate the next new thing online. Once that new thing becomes old and the users average age increases it is almost a must that they move on.
TBH I only go on facebook when I am filling in time. Say near the end of a train short journey home when it is dark outside and all my emails are replied too. I then go into Facebook to fill in the last few minutes of the journey. I never find anything of interest. All my true friends have gone back to the phone or email or actually physically meeting up with me. Imagine that in the modern, internet age!! People meeting up!
It would not bother me one bit if they failed. In fact i would be interested to know what, if anything, takes its place!
Claes Gefvenberg
Admin
Speaking for myself, I use it quite extensively (in spite of my advanced age 
), because I find it useful for keeping in touch with friends all over the world. Those closer to home, I prefer to see IRL.
All in all, being the geek I admittedly am, I often try out new communication tools, but most of them (like the ill-fated Google Wave, which in fact was not half bad) fade into oblivion pretty soon. A few hold on longer, but sooner or later they will inevitably be replaced by something new. I simply go for the means that the majority of my friends are currently using, and right now that is FB.
Speaking of communication, I still hold an old radio certificate I no longer have any use for (no equipment).
), because I find it useful for keeping in touch with friends all over the world. Those closer to home, I prefer to see IRL. All in all, being the geek I admittedly am, I often try out new communication tools, but most of them (like the ill-fated Google Wave, which in fact was not half bad) fade into oblivion pretty soon. A few hold on longer, but sooner or later they will inevitably be replaced by something new. I simply go for the means that the majority of my friends are currently using, and right now that is FB.
Speaking of communication, I still hold an old radio certificate I no longer have any use for (no equipment).
Aaaah! Claes are you part of the reason the youngsters are leaving??
I got my parents onto Facebook then realised it was a mistake and never added them to my facebook. I mean, I've got some friends who, how shall I put it, they old folks wouldn't get their humour.
TBH never got into mobile computing and internet based communication sites. I am kind of getting into it since an unlimited data phone contract kicked in. I do think all these communication sites or apps are only worth joining if the people you communicate with are on them. If business contacts are on linkedin then you will. If distant friends on facebook then you will. If family are on whatsapp then you will use it as a cheaper way to send SMS, MMS, links, files, etc.
Whatever comes up as the next new fad, people will only join when their circle starts to use it. The younger generations tend to find and populate them first but us older people join in eventually. I can see the epidemiology way of looking at them makes sense. It seems to me they have phases in their life cycle just like virus' or infectious diseases.
I got my parents onto Facebook then realised it was a mistake and never added them to my facebook. I mean, I've got some friends who, how shall I put it, they old folks wouldn't get their humour.
TBH never got into mobile computing and internet based communication sites. I am kind of getting into it since an unlimited data phone contract kicked in. I do think all these communication sites or apps are only worth joining if the people you communicate with are on them. If business contacts are on linkedin then you will. If distant friends on facebook then you will. If family are on whatsapp then you will use it as a cheaper way to send SMS, MMS, links, files, etc.
Whatever comes up as the next new fad, people will only join when their circle starts to use it. The younger generations tend to find and populate them first but us older people join in eventually. I can see the epidemiology way of looking at them makes sense. It seems to me they have phases in their life cycle just like virus' or infectious diseases.
P
Pelaminoskep
Well, indeed, Facebook is losing hold of the population that should be promoting them and has done so in the past: the younger generation.
The question is why
I don't believe youngsters are leaving because their parents have come online. They will follow them wherever if they think it's needed. They can just block or remove their parents from their facebook if they want (although that seems to be simpler than it is).
I think there's just not enough happening socially on facebook. People are posting less and less, because they are more passively engaged in facebook. I think this is caused by the huge amount of bloggers/companies/<fill in anything else that is not a named individual here> that post funny or interesting things. It was once purely a social page with updates from people you actually knew. You -needed- to post things yourself, otherwise nothing much would be happening in the first place and you knew people would actually read them.
Now it is a glorified RSS feed with some social thingies on the side. I almost stopped posting and am mostly just reading some interesting posts and looking at funny pictures.
The innate need to make contact with your social group is fed less and less because of this. Hence, people look for something else that feeds this need.
The question is why
I don't believe youngsters are leaving because their parents have come online. They will follow them wherever if they think it's needed. They can just block or remove their parents from their facebook if they want (although that seems to be simpler than it is).
I think there's just not enough happening socially on facebook. People are posting less and less, because they are more passively engaged in facebook. I think this is caused by the huge amount of bloggers/companies/<fill in anything else that is not a named individual here> that post funny or interesting things. It was once purely a social page with updates from people you actually knew. You -needed- to post things yourself, otherwise nothing much would be happening in the first place and you knew people would actually read them.
Now it is a glorified RSS feed with some social thingies on the side. I almost stopped posting and am mostly just reading some interesting posts and looking at funny pictures.
The innate need to make contact with your social group is fed less and less because of this. Hence, people look for something else that feeds this need.
P
PaulJSmith
Like Claes, I use Facebook extensively (and I'm also no spring chicken). Some of it is to keep in contact with friends and family scattered across the globe, but much of it is to promote my music career. I used to use MySpace for that, but it got so unwieldy that it was almost more trouble than it was worth. I migrated over to Facebook because of it's relative simplicity ... at the time. These days, though, it's every bit as clogged up as MySpace, and seems to be headed for the same fate ... in my opinion, anyway.
Interesting... by what I'm gathering, it's saying they estimate that Facebook will lose audience; not that it has lost.
TPMB4 is correct. Many of the youts have minimized their FB usage. They have moved to Instagram, Snap Chat, Myspace and others. The youts are always doing what they feel is "the rage".
However, that doesn't necessarily mean instant decline in Facebook. Consider the FB crowd here. We seem to have a pretty good time on FB and are fairly active. What I have noticed too, is there is an impressive crowd on there older than I (55+). They enjoy it because it's relatively easy to use, and they can stay in touch.
FB is like the Internet; it has its goods and its bads. Some days there are things I think is interesting; some days I don't care for it much. I love peoples family pictures, jokes, funny things, oddities, recipes, etc. I really enjoy following the group of friends I have from here.
Honestly, I think FB's biggest threat is from within. They roll out these updates, and many of them are terrible, confusing, and unclear why there were even made.
TPMB4 is correct. Many of the youts have minimized their FB usage. They have moved to Instagram, Snap Chat, Myspace and others. The youts are always doing what they feel is "the rage".
However, that doesn't necessarily mean instant decline in Facebook. Consider the FB crowd here. We seem to have a pretty good time on FB and are fairly active. What I have noticed too, is there is an impressive crowd on there older than I (55+). They enjoy it because it's relatively easy to use, and they can stay in touch.
FB is like the Internet; it has its goods and its bads. Some days there are things I think is interesting; some days I don't care for it much. I love peoples family pictures, jokes, funny things, oddities, recipes, etc. I really enjoy following the group of friends I have from here.
Honestly, I think FB's biggest threat is from within. They roll out these updates, and many of them are terrible, confusing, and unclear why there were even made.
My kids chewed me out because... are you ready for this... I commented on their posts!! :mg: And... I commented on their friends posts!! 
I say, first, you're friends sent me friend requests.
Second, why the heck do you have Facebook if you don't expect people to post?
I then say... wait...
I bet if the most popular guy or girl at school commented on all your posts, that would be the greatest thing ever. Huh??
Ok... back on topic. If FB gets smart, they won't try to appeal to every audience. They know who spends the most time on there. Cater to them, and watch their base grow.
I say, first, you're friends sent me friend requests.
Second, why the heck do you have Facebook if you don't expect people to post?
I then say... wait...
I bet if the most popular guy or girl at school commented on all your posts, that would be the greatest thing ever. Huh??
Ok... back on topic. If FB gets smart, they won't try to appeal to every audience. They know who spends the most time on there. Cater to them, and watch their base grow.
