Abrupt climate change and oil at US$80 per barrel within 20 years?

Abrupt climate change

I found an interesting bit of reading today:

During lunch I was browsing Le Monde and found a reference to a scary Climate Change scenario (Don't worry, the following links are not in french). A search later I found this document at the Global Business Network:

GBN's report: "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security," written by GBN chairman Peter Schwartz and co-head of GBN's consulting practice Doug Randall.
You can also read about The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare in Fortune.

Looking forward to reading your comments... What do you think?

/Claes
 

Mike S.

Happy to be Alive
Trusted Information Resource
Well, the Pentagon also likely has scenerios as to how to handle a space alien invasion, too, but it isn't too likely. I think these climate change reports are often too overblown. In the 70's they were screaming about global cooling in major publications.

Here is one thought: http://www.cei.org/gencon/003,03878.cfm
 
A

Aaron Lupo

I have forwarded the article to my brother for comment. He has his PhD in Atmospheric Sciences and will be going to Russia in May of this year on a Fulbright Scholarship doing some kind of weather related study.
 

SteelMaiden

Super Moderator
Trusted Information Resource
Can it happen, sure, why not. Will it happen, who knows? If it suddenly turns cold in NC, I am probably better prepared than most, I have 4WD and know how to use it.:biglaugh:

Some people are not happy unless they are unhappy. Me, I discovered at Christmas that life is too short. I am not going to get myself in a tizzy about global warming, global cooling, or a nuclear strike. It's much more important to take care of our responsibilities and provide for our loved ones.

Do I intend to make plans for the future, sure, but my plans will be realistic, not some knee jerk reaction to every passing fad.
 
A

Aaron Lupo

And this is what he said.

"
If you read the full document, there citation and reference to good science in there regarding natural climate shifts (which can occur abruptly). However, we (myself and my advanced climates class) had a good laugh out of the synopsis. Folks who have latched onto this have interwoven this with their “greenhouse gas” agenda. They are latching onto anything and twisting into a manmade CO2 “crisis” which is just plain non-sense.

I’ve also noticed “global warming” is lacked throughout the 22 page document as if to equate anything that happens from now on as “man made”. It’s criminal.

Just this morning, a report called the Summer of 2003 the hottest in 500 years and had one scientist attribute that to global warming. Then I’ve seen them attribute the Northeast’s cold winter to global warming. I guess if everything is related, they can’t fail!

Look for more of this to come out in the run up to the movie (“The day after tomorrow”) coming out in late May. It’s about global warming bringing on the next ice age in a few weeks. Just more Hollywood propaganda."
 

Wes Bucey

Prophet of Profit
ISO GUY said:
And this is what he said. [I presume ISO GUY's Fulbright Fellow brother]
"If you read the full document, there's citation and reference to good science in there regarding natural climate shifts (which can occur abruptly). However, we (myself and my advanced climates class) had a good laugh out of the synopsis."
There is a often-used phrase, "The truth will out." which applies to most stories, regardless whether they are
  • rumors about celebrity scandals or relationships;
  • political hot potatoes;
  • scary or benign science.
In practical terms, this means that sooner or later, all sides to an issue will weigh in on the story and more facts will be unearthed. When all is said and done, the truth or falsity of the first report becomes apparent.

Even "peer reviewed" publications are subject to incompetence or fraud. Eventually, concerned parties make their opposite views known. Sooner or later, "The truth will out." A case in point is a current mini brouhaha stirring in the ASQ Forums:
Dr. Jack Westfall
Coordinator of Assessment
Sheboygan Area School District
830 Virginia Avenue
Sheboygan, WI 53081
TEL 920.459.3537


is railing against a dearth of scholarship in a Quality Progress article. It will be interesting to follow the thread to see the result.

:topic: Why did you label this thread with a :caution: symbol, Claes? Caution about climate change or caution about taking everything we read with NO SALT?
 
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W

WALLACE

scary Climate Change scenario

I experience a scary Climate Change at my place of work almost every hour.
I say, bring it on----------bring it on. :lol:
Wallace.
 
Wes Bucey said:
:topic: Why did you label this thread with a :caution: symbol, Claes? Caution about climate change or caution about taking everything we read with NO SALT?
Right on the money! :agree1: Caution about accepting everything we read without questioning it...

/Claes
 

Marc

Fully vaccinated are you?
Leader
Oil at US$80 Within 30 years?

Claes Gefvenberg said:
I found an interesting bit of reading today...
You might also want to consider compounding aspects of the potential problem.

http://www.TruthOut.com/docs_04/030904G.shtml

From the article:
And that's the good news. The term "peak" tends to suggest a nice, neat curve, with production rising slowly to a halfway point, then tapering off gradually to zero — as if, since it took a century to reach a peak, it ought to take another 100 years to reach the end. But in the real world, the landing will not be soft. As we hit the peak, soaring prices — $70, $80, even $100 a barrel — will encourage oil companies and oil states to scour the planet for oil. For a time, they will succeed, finding enough crude to keep production flat, thus stretching out the peak into a kind of plateau and perhaps temporarily easing fears. But in reality, this manic, post-peak production will deplete remaining reserves all the more quickly, thus ensuring that the eventual decline is far steeper and far more sudden. As one U.S. government geologist put it to me recently, "the edge of a plateau looks a lot like a cliff."

As production falls off this cliff, prices won't simply increase; they will fly. If our oil dependence hasn't lessened drastically by then, the global economy is likely to slip into a recession so severe that the Great Depression will look like a dress rehearsal. Oil will cease to be viable as a fuel — hardly an encouraging scenario in a world where oil currently provides 40% of all energy and nearly 90% of all transportation fuel. Political reaction would be desperate. Industrial economies, hungry for energy, would begin making it from any source available — most likely coal — regardless of the ecological consequences. Worse, competition for remaining oil supplies would intensify, potentially leading to a new kind of political conflict: the energy war.

Thus, when we peak becomes a rather pressing question. Some pessimists tell us the peak has already come, and that calamity is imminent. That's unlikely. But the optimists' forecast — that we don't peak until around 2035 — is almost as hard to believe.
2035 is only 30 years away. Will you still be here? How about your kids, if you have any?
 
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