posted 21 April 1999 08:06 AM               

There are some systems that will shut down, if not fixed......most will just screw up and make life miserable. The key to it all is the impact analysis, which if not done properly, is worse than not doing anything.
A while back a consultant from NZ tried to convince me to get into monitoring the consultants for the companies to ensure that they had systems in place that would ensure a 'quality' impact analysis...the dollars he sited were in the millions for 2 years work. BUT I chickened out, it was way over my head.....he didn't think so, but I did. I helped him get his consulting company system ready, and we prepared an ISO type presentation for him to present to his potential clients. It was fun, it has been very profitable for him (he is getting his millions)...he is a programmer, and now has 50+ people working for him on this project. he says teh little prep work we did has made the transition from a handfull of employees to what he has (now, worldwide)an easy task.

Anyway....I learned a bundle about the Y2K stuff from him.

The issues are in how much control the computer has on your manufacturing systems..automation, data transfer. MRP, ...financial issues are the worst....anything that triggers on a date....interest, payouts, life insurance, birth (age)....delivery dates, archived files

Problem is some programs have hidden dates....And you are at the mercy of your suppliers.....did they do it correctly? there are some people doing a "fix" and leaving the company with a false sence of security....and have in actuality done nothing. And there are systems out there that are still selling (sale prices...), that are not compliant.

posted 21 April 1999 08:00 PM               

If we can come to some defined limits, we can start a pool on how 'bad' y2k will be. I say wimper, at best. Barb says messy (at least?). I bet the biggest problem will be in personal lives - like a 10 year old VCR. Stuff like that. Annoyance. I bet there will be absolutely no significant food or other general neccesity shortage or significant supply problems. That cash machines will work and banks will experience few problems. That planes will be flying and on schedule (for as much as they're on schedule now).

Problems will be from embedded discrete devices (like the VRC chips). Every company I have been in as of late has assesses everything from PCs on desks to equipment controllers (discrete devices) to HVAC controllers.

Last winter there was a good article on y2k in Scientific American. Very detailed and relevant. Even went into the leap year aspect. It also gave reasons why y2k failures in various discrete devices may not show up for 4 years - or any time in between. But again, most of this will be in things like consumer appliances like VCRs and such. If your video camera has a date stamp function, is it y2k compliant (discrete device)?

Me - no - well, I have a cistern and burn wood during the winter, but I'm not intending on 'stocking up' on food or gasoline, much less buying a generator.

I thought of a generator as out here where I live the electricity does go out for a few hours now and again. But when I thought of this about 3 years ago - not in regard to y2k but in regard to the fact that 'there could be an outage for a week or so during a winter storm or something' - I found that a decent 4500 watt burned quite a bit of fuel a day (I can't remember - I think it was 5 to 10 gallons or something like that a day [24 hours]) - I figured then comes the 50 gallon or 100 gallon storage tank. With it comes environmental hassles, etc. I decided if the electric does go out for a week - well, I'll have enough wood. Like in QS where you have to have contingency plans, the question becomes how far are you willing to go? Will you build a tornado 'proof' room in your house (about a $4K investment minimum)? If you buy that emergency generator how much fuel will you store and where? You have to change out the fuel once a year at least - gasoline does evaporate and concentrate and otherwise reacts. Same with food and water.