Qualitative or Quantitative? Risk method evaluation

[qualprod]

Hello everybody

In the approach to manage risk under 9001 2015, I´m considering this.

I use the equation Risk value = PxI
Once I get the value, I have a table of values which correspond to a Type of risk, ranking form A to D.
My sources to evaluate P and are just references, events in the past, which remain in the mind of people, Impact (I) comes from imagination as what level of impact can occur.
So in my opinion is Qualitative way of measuring risk, not Quantitative, since source information is not based on numbers, quantities,Percentage values.

Two questions

1- Do you think is right my assumption?

2- On the other hand, do you think could be better to use other method to evaluate risks, e.g. just to use Low, Medium,High, since criteria to evaluate it is not precise, is just a rough estimation?

Please share your thought on these two matters.

Thanks in advance

 

[Randy]

I think you're trying to over complicate a simple process, determination of risk can be a simple judgement call and not some mathematical formula

 

[qualprod]

Thanks Randy
But don't you think,that risks deserve a strong control in their management?
Imagine high value risk, how to control them?, how to rank risks,from low to high?
Don't you think is worth to apply more analysis and control?
Thanks

 

[Jen Kirley]

Judgments can be ranked too. You can use a decision tree diagram to organize the information and maintain it to help pinpoint if the actions were effective, which/where and how much.

The benefit of judgement is its being sensitive to trends and external factor shifts; numbers would have to be adjusted to respond to changes in factors like public opinion.

 

[qualprod]

Thanks Jen
In your opinion rísks under 9001, how much analysis do they deserve?
it may be from too simple to very complex, really
Im lost.
I started to use the said method, and found it, complex to be managed.
From the calculation, the follow up, the criteria for the closeout, the residual risk,etc, no doubt it may exist a simpler approach.
Hope someone, can share a simple method as a guide
Thanks

 

[Jen Kirley]

Thanks Jen
In your opinion rísks under 9001, how much analysis do they deserve?
it may be from too simple to very complex, really
Im lost.
I started to use the said method, and found it, complex to be managed.
From the calculation, the follow up, the criteria for the closeout, the residual risk,etc, no doubt it may exist a simpler approach.
Hope someone, can share a simple method as a guide
Thanks

Many people are comfortable with using a scoring approach, as with FMEA. If you prefer that, fine.

Randy and I want to also encourage you to not limit yourself to regimented approaches. If a number of parts are being placed into a box for shipment, is there a risk of missing an item? If so, would a checklist help? Risk based thinking can be that simple.

Some hospitals have recognized the risk (whether it happened there or elsewhere) of operating on the wrong limb, and have begun marking them with a marker and having the patient indicate approval before anesthesia. Checklists have been developed for operating rooms, including to count the sponges before and after surgery, reducing the risk of leaving one in the patient.

All of these are good ideas and arguably don't need to await a numerical analysis to implement. Making this too complex introduces a risk that you will miss an opportunity.

 

[Randy]

How many mathematical formulas did Bill Gates use when he started his business (Microsoft)? Or Steve Jobs (Apple), Mary Kay Ash (Mary Kay Cosmetics), Fred Smith (FedEx)?

Every one of those businesses were based on a gut decision, hunch or feeling, Fred Smith went so far as to gamble his last dollar in Vegas to raise operating funds, so how much math was involved in that?

Risk based thinking isn't math.

 

[qualprod]

Thanks Randy and Jen
Very good examples for considering
Risks in a different way.