97% Predictability in all things? Dr. Deming's statement

S

sharney

#1
My first thread.....bear with me.

Here goes - 97% of what happens in organizations is predictable.
Is Quality based on this precept as well?
How do you investigate where the 97% and 3% are located?
Where, when do you begin counting upwards towards 97%?
Really fascinated by Dr. Deming's statement.

Thanks.
 
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Stijloor

Staff member
Super Moderator
#2
My first thread.....bear with me.

Here goes - 97% of what happens in organizations is predictable.
Is Quality based on this precept as well?
How do you investigate where the 97% and 3% are located?
Where, when do you begin counting upwards towards 97%?
Really fascinated by Dr. Deming's statement.

Thanks.
Any Deming experts that can help?

Thank you!

Stijloor.
 
S

Sorin

#3
It looks to me like this 97% is a case of "spin it to fit one's views".

Do you have a link for the predictability statement?

Apparently Deming said something completely different.

http://www.qualitydigest.com/inside/twitter-ed/deming-dead-long-live-deming.html#

Deming did not say that 97 percent of the problems needed to be fixed by management but rather, that 97 percent of the time it was due to bad processes, not people. Yes, some of these are the responsibility of management; but good statistical thinking can use a common-cause strategy with data to solve a lot of these problems… and managers can remove barriers to implementing the solution.
 

bobdoering

Stop X-bar/R Madness!!
Trusted Information Resource
#4
I don't think one should look at this statement as a statistical fact supported by ongoing studies. Rather, a philosophical statement, maybe even exaggerated to make a point. There is no one statistic so perfect that it can be universally held. But, it may illustrate a model which can lead one toward a suitable (I won't even use the word 'correct') solution for a specific situation.
 

Jim Wynne

Staff member
Admin
#5
I don't think one should look at this statement as a statistical fact supported by ongoing studies. Rather, a philosophical statement, maybe even exaggerated to make a point. There is no one statistic so perfect that it can be universally held. But, it may illustrate a model which can lead one toward a suitable (I won't even use the word 'correct') solution for a specific situation.
Yes--there's no reason to believe that if Deming actually said what's attributed to him by the OP that he (Deming) meant it to be taken literally. I'm sure that the intent was to convey the idea that most things that go wrong are predictable, but only when there's an understanding of the variation involved.
 
S

sharney

#6
Folks,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Sorin, do not have a link but found this theory on "about.com-the precepts of quality".
 
S

sharney

#8
Big 10 4

i would like to know your thoughts on this article..........if you have time?

thanks
 
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