The idea of "Fermi problems" is well-known in physics circles, and I think it is a skill that many, including managers and quality professionals, should practice. Also, to describe a Fermi problem, rather than saying "making intelligent estimates when little or no data is available" I would say "making reasonable estimates using diverse knowledge that an intelligent, well-informed person might possess."
The goal is partly to come up with a reasonable estimate, partly to know when numbers just don't make sense, and partly to think about what information might be needed to solve the problem. The piano tuner question is a classic example. Drops of water in the Atlantic Ocean is another. My estimate of the probabilty of a head-on collision in a previous thread is another. In a business setting, you might ask "what is the cost to produce this widget?" or "what is the potential market for my new product?" After all, if you are planning to build a better mousetrap, it would be wise to have at least some idea of how many mousetraps people need and what they might cost to produce! Or if you have 100 potential 6S projects, it would be wise to make a rough estimate of savings to narrow down the choices and then do a more accurate estimate on the remaining projects.
Tim F
The goal is partly to come up with a reasonable estimate, partly to know when numbers just don't make sense, and partly to think about what information might be needed to solve the problem. The piano tuner question is a classic example. Drops of water in the Atlantic Ocean is another. My estimate of the probabilty of a head-on collision in a previous thread is another. In a business setting, you might ask "what is the cost to produce this widget?" or "what is the potential market for my new product?" After all, if you are planning to build a better mousetrap, it would be wise to have at least some idea of how many mousetraps people need and what they might cost to produce! Or if you have 100 potential 6S projects, it would be wise to make a rough estimate of savings to narrow down the choices and then do a more accurate estimate on the remaining projects.
Tim F