Can psychics really see the past/future?

[Waltz1982]

I’m sure everyone has seen the signs for “$5 Psychic Readings” in their town or while traveling elsewhere. What I wanted to discuss here were your thoughts on using psychics for more than just personal entertainment, more specifically in police and detective work.

There’s been documented cases in the past where police haven’t been able to solve a crime, at which point they turn to a psychic for help.
What I find the most interesting is when the psychics they hire actually solve the case.

What are your thoughts on this? What about using psychics to help solve some of the current investigations (such as the Peterson or Hacking
trials?)

I’m not an expert myself on the topic, but I’ve been learning a bit more from a new show on Court TV called Psychic Detectives. It’s on Wednesday’s at 9:30pm in case you want to watch it too.

 

[D.Scott]

Welcome to the Cove Waltz.

You came to the right place if you are looking for psychos. This place is full of them.

OOPS - I see you are looking for psychics - sorry, out of my field.

Welcome to the Cove anyway.

Dave

 

[Charmed]

The past and the future

Dear Waltz:

This may be way too far out. In another part of the world, see link, they practice what they call reading the past and the future from records on olaf/palm leafs.

http://jyotisha.00it.com/Nadi.htm

I have known people who told me that the predictions did come true and I have also known others who told me the whole thing was just a farce and nothing has ever come true.

Anyway, the following I thought was funny. It talks about following procedures, sort of like many other procedures I keep hearing about.

The one visiting the psychic says, "To make things much easier, I will tell you my fathers full name, my mothers full name, my full name" and "Can't you please find my Leaf a bit quicker ? Because I live in Kandy suburbs and if I get held up at Colombo, I might not be able to catch the last bus leaving from Kandy and I may have to walk about 3 km to home at night".

They (the psychic readers) said, "No, you have to answer these questions." I asked, "Why? I promised to tell you what you want?"

Answer was that they have to follow the procedure.

BTW, I misread your post at first and thought that you were asking about predictions based on "physics". I have been hearing the USGS folks making predictions about Mt. Helens. There is a 70% chance of a big ERUPTION and 30% chance that it will just go back to sleep again. What does 70% chance of eruption mean in this case?

If you look at the mountain 10 times, after the third time you are bound to see a big eruption? Or, if you look at the mountain 10 times, after the 7th time you are bound to see it has fallen asleep? Any thoughts on this about the immediate future for Mt. Helens - psychics or physics, doesn't matter.

 

[Charmed]

The end of a curse - Baseball

And, the following may be of interest too! Is there a curse on the Astros? Read on.

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3058064?GT1=5377


1. The end of someone's curse?

Tales and stories of the Red Sox's cosmic blight are legion. They haven't won a World Series since 1918 — the year before they sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees. But the Astros, this year's NL wild-card team, have a mini-curse of their own going. Since their inception prior to the 1962 season (they were the "Houston Colt-45s" back then), the Astros have captured seven division titles, but they've never made the World Series. That's a 42-year drought coming into this postseason. While the curses of the Red Sox, Cubs and White Sox get more ink, the Astros have pretty bad karma in their own right. Throw in the Rangers' 32-year World Series drought, and that's 74 seasons of Lone Star State baseball without a championship. If we get a Red Sox-'Stros World Series, then at least it's curtains for someone's curse.

 

[SteelMaiden]

I’m sure everyone has seen the signs for “$5 Psychic Readings” in their town or while traveling elsewhere. What I wanted to discuss here were your thoughts on using psychics for more than just personal entertainment, more specifically in police and detective work.

Welcome, as my esteemed colleague said, this forum is full of psychos. but, to answer your question, imho, true psychics are probably not the ones you see with the funky sign on the post outside a house as you drive through town. Most true psychics would probably wish they weren't. I would rather go to the boardwalk and put some coins in the "Gypsy Fortune Teller" booth then go to a "mystic reader". I'd probably get just as good information from a machine. Maybe even a fortune telling scale.

For fun, go ahead, but if you are seriously hunting for a psychic, you should probably get some background.

 

[jaimezepeda]

BTW, I misread your post at first and thought that you were asking about predictions based on "physics". I have been hearing the USGS folks making predictions about Mt. Helens. There is a 70% chance of a big ERUPTION and 30% chance that it will just go back to sleep again. What does 70% chance of eruption mean in this case?

If you look at the mountain 10 times, after the third time you are bound to see a big eruption? Or, if you look at the mountain 10 times, after the 7th time you are bound to see it has fallen asleep? Any thoughts on this about the immediate future for Mt. Helens - psychics or physics, doesn't matter.

Charmed,

I believe that a 70% chance of eruption means that given the current conditions, the volcano is likely to erupt 7 times out 10. So, it is very likely that the volcano will erupt. I have read some reports that claim that eruption is emminent.

They wouldn't have to tell me twice to get out Dodge City if a volcano's eruption was emminent. Unfortunately, I am scheduled to go do an internal audit in Portland, OR next week. I was scheduled to do an internal audit in Fort Lauderdale, FL the week after Frances hit and the week before Ivan hit. I guess our internal audit program has, in my estimation, a 70% chance of being disrupted by a natural disaster.

Jaime

 

[Charmed]

Jaime, please explain

Charmed,

I believe that a 70% chance of eruption means that given the current conditions, the volcano is likely to erupt 7 times out 10.
Jaime

What exactly does likely to erupt 7 times out of 10 mean? It has not erupted, that's all I can tell. So, what is likely? Going to sleep?

BTW, here's what the good docs say about probability of occurrence of an event.

http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/m115/probability/outline.html

I looked at Ichiro Suzuki's game log for September 2004. As you might know, he is now the Hit King of baseball and surpassed the 84-year old record of George Sisler for the most hits in a single season. His batting average (BA) for this season is 0.372. But his game log says the following.

Sep 19, At Bats 4, Hits 0 BA = Hits/AtBats = 0/4 = 0
Sep 20, At Bats 4, Hits 2 BA = 2/4 = 0.50
Sep 22, At Bats 6, Hits 4 BA = 4/6 = 0.667
Sep 29, At Bats 3, Hits 1 BA = 1/3 = 0.333

So, I guess, if I take the relative frequency of occurrence interpretation, I have to keep looking at the mountain and record what I see! Or, if I like the subjective viewpoint, I should poll a number of people, preferably from the USGS, and ask them what they think will happen. Anyway, still waiting for the big one. What do you think Jamie?

 

[Jim Howe]

I’m sure everyone has seen the signs for “$5 Psychic Readings” in their town or while traveling elsewhere. What I wanted to discuss here were your thoughts on using psychics for more than just personal entertainment, more specifically in police and detective work.

There’s been documented cases in the past where police haven’t been able to solve a crime, at which point they turn to a psychic for help.
What I find the most interesting is when the psychics they hire actually solve the case.

What are your thoughts on this? What about using psychics to help solve some of the current investigations (such as the Peterson or Hacking
trials?)

I’m not an expert myself on the topic, but I’ve been learning a bit more from a new show on Court TV called Psychic Detectives. It’s on Wednesday’s at 9:30pm in case you want to watch it too.

Years ago (1962) I recall reading a book entitled Omar Khayyam, son of the Tentmaker, or something similar in title. It seems that he was the Kings psychic, or back then, better known as the kings astrologer. I am not sure it is still in print but I found it worthwhile reading. circa Persia 600 to 1000 AD I believe.

Supposedy Omar foretold the future for the king, especially for going to war. Also we have the prophets both biblical and modern day. But it seems to me you are more interested in the modern day versions of ESP (extrasensory perception). I am sure a search would yield sufficient data to consume a lifetime of research.

There are some who equate ESP with the praeternatural gifts supposedly possessed by Adam.

My point is there is a lot of folklore and a lot of info about the subject but i have my doubts if anyone truly can predict the future! On the other hand I believe Las Vegas bans certain people for their ability to predict the turn of a card. How about the guy that had his own TV show years ago. Was his name "Kreskin". It seems to me he said he was banned from Vegas. Anyone know for sure?

 

[Carl Keller]

Kreskin, Nostrodamus blah, blah, blah

Check out the amazing Randi.

James Randi is a magician who set out to debunk all the psychic claims about 15 years or so ago. He has carried a check for 1 million dollars since then. The first person to meet the scientific criteria he has outlined and prove psychic ability gets the check. Activities are to be independently observed and documented. So far, nobody has collected a dime.

I think his money is safe.

www.randi.org

Stick with probability over psychic ability.



Carl-

 

[Charmed]

Mount Saint Helens blowing steam now

Kreskin, Nostrodamus blah, blah, blah.............

.........Stick with probability over psychic ability.

Carl-

Yes, Mount Saint Helens is now blowing steam again. I must have looked at that mountain enough times now. It wasn't doing anything before, now it is doing something, so the predictions based on 70% probability are correct!

Now, what is the conditional probability, given that steam is blowing, that there will a BIG ONE, and when? That's what I am interested in finding out. Psychic forecasts are OK too.