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Corona Virus - 2/2020


A Sea of Statistics
ok, a situation where the phrase..."an abundance of caution" 1000% appropriate and required. And on a brighter side....spring is 19 March :agree1::agree1:


Quite Involved in Discussions
Spring may not soften the spread of the virus. Cases in Singapore and this preprint suggest it may still spread in warmer months as readily as it currently is.
The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak
"Here, we examine province-level variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across China and find that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the North Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in COVID-19 case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions."
There will always be a range of responses to any infectious agent. Many who are exposed will be naturally resistant and never become infected. Some of those who are infected will show no symptoms, others will show symptoms that are mild enough that they will shrug it off as a cold or whatever, take two aspirin, drink plenty of fluids, get bedrest, recover, and never call their doctor in the morning.

One factor that influences response is prior exposure to related pathogens. While the coronavirus is "novel," it is part of a large family of viruses. This means lots of people (maybe virtually everyone) have been previously exposed to one of its relatives. This creates the opportunity (but certainly no guarantee) for many people to have developed partial resistance.

As for diagnosis, word among the global health community had it that one of the reasons (maybe the main one) that the Ebola epidemic got out of hand was that many of the immediately available diagnostic test kits turned out to be blackmarket ripoffs or expired product dumped by manufacturers. When a diagnostic test doesn't work, the results tend to be negative. No diagnosis means no treatment...and the band plays on. The more blackmarket or dumped product can be found circulating within a population, the more the population is at risk of epidemic.
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