Effects of Technology - 2020

Bev D

Heretical Statistician
Leader
Super Moderator
So were all taking about different things now, even different time periods - and very little is about lean. Most of it has become theoretical economical eco systems.

WatchCat - small and medium sized companies can and do have assembly lines and mass produce parts - I’ve worked in all 3 ‘size’ categorizations and each has had assembly lines and mass production and in some cases each hasn’t. If you look at the definitions of those industrial terms you will see that organizational size doesn’t matter.

Lean doesn’t only apply to automation or mass production. It works in many types of organizations and industries. In fact some of the largest benefits are often in the non-manufacturing ‘support’ or ‘salaried’ positions. The real fact remains that there are very few organizations that have achieved a lean operating state.

Bill - your example of the guy pushing a broom is one that must be interpreted in terms of Lean, not cost savings. In many cases the ‘pushing broom’ is something operators do when there is a line down or as part of the standard 5S work. Depending on the situation, there may be a valid waste reduction reason for automating this task but in general lean doesn’t result in this. In fact automation is - in general kept at a minimum - and is only done for complicated physics tasks (welding, heat treat, etc.) that are difficult for humans to do or to do consistently, or to have the machine do an unsafe or an un-ergonomic task for the operator.

Ronen - your concerns are common but your eventual state is hardly possible - at least from our current vantage point. And this doomsday scenario is not a result of lean - in fact it would be the exact opposite of the Lean intent. I am quite familiar with AI and it isn’t artificial intelligence in the way you imply. It’s just a bunch of statistical algorithms that allow computers to remember more things than before. But they can’t think. Even AI needs hoards of people to make it work.

People will still be needed to design the machines, repair the machines, buy the parts, etc. yes there will be more efficiency but we’ve only ever produced more jobs in the long run even though the specific people effected by automation and emerging technology have a very difficult time finding other high paying employment due to constrained skills, geographic preferences etc. BUT this is not about Lean; it’s about general economic theories...

While these economic theoretical discussions are interesting they are laced with opinion and personal biases. Can we separate this discussion out from the lean thread?
 

Watchcat

Trusted Information Resource
how about 1:10,000?

This is pretty much how I see it, except that there are other major forces in play. Really a big mess. :(

One scenario is that we end up with 1 in 10:000 being very well paid for their highly skilled work running machines. Then the government taxes them at a 99.99% rate to support the other 9,999 who have no jobs because all work is automated. The Ones don't see much point in working if the government is going to take virtually all of their money and use it to support those who are not working, so they quit What they do then, lots scenarios.

But that doesn't seem to be how it's working out, for whatever reasons. The people who end up with the money don't have high-end labor skills, nor do they engage in any labor. They are just the rich who keep on getting richer, thanks to their investments, not their productivity.
 
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Marc

Fully vaccinated are you?
Leader
...one of the professors told me that the technological changes that would take place over the next century would be more rapid-fire than the technological changes that had taken place over the past 20,000 years.
I believe it.

When I think about these things, I remember my dad. When I was a kid (mostly) he would tell me about the first time he saw an airplane fly overhead, and how he was so amazed. As a doctor, he started a practice at a time when doctors still did house calls. He had an office, but at least 1/2 of the day was house calls. In the 1950's, when I was a kid, I don't remember doctor visits at an office - My pediatrician, Dr. Fred Stine ((broken link removed)), always came to the house when one of us was sick or needed a vaccination or whatever. This is Fred's son: FORT THOMAS MATTERS: Judge Fred A. Stine Set to Retire

As I go into old age, I think about my dad a lot. He was into radio controlled airplanes when I was a kid and he loved technology. He was into sound systems when monaural was it - And when stereo came in, he added to his system. Other than bedrooms and bathrooms, every room had at least one big speaker, all of it controlled from a cabinet he built to hold all of the components (pre-amp(s), amps, turntable, radio receiver, etc.). He built his own speaker enclosures, as well. He died before smart phones and so many other technological stuff. He bought one of the early microwave ovens in the late 1950's. Unlike in the link, it was an in-wall, 220V oven that he installed and wired himself.

Not withstanding the very real possibility of a large scale war disrupting things, none of us can really predict what is in the future.
 
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