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When a nonconforming product comes back from a customer or is found in production, a question is always looming: is this occurrence a symptom of a trending problem with this product?
E.g., if a circuit board comes back from a customer and has a failed transistor, does this one occurrence suggest that there may be a trend requiring escalation, or does the board just get reworked and sent back to the customer, and the nonconformance logged?
Clearly, if the same issue recurs multiple times we think we see a 'trend', and our suspicions are increasingly raised that these are not random component failures. That is, our estimation of probability that this issue calls for more investigation, escalation, etc. increases with the number (or percentage) of these nonconformance occurrences. How do we know when to act?
So it seems then that this should be a place where Bayesian methods could be applied to assist intuition and experience in determining the likelihood of the need for additional action with increasing evidence. Are there 'standard' or typical Bayesian methods for doing that with nonconformances specifically?
E.g., if a circuit board comes back from a customer and has a failed transistor, does this one occurrence suggest that there may be a trend requiring escalation, or does the board just get reworked and sent back to the customer, and the nonconformance logged?
Clearly, if the same issue recurs multiple times we think we see a 'trend', and our suspicions are increasingly raised that these are not random component failures. That is, our estimation of probability that this issue calls for more investigation, escalation, etc. increases with the number (or percentage) of these nonconformance occurrences. How do we know when to act?
So it seems then that this should be a place where Bayesian methods could be applied to assist intuition and experience in determining the likelihood of the need for additional action with increasing evidence. Are there 'standard' or typical Bayesian methods for doing that with nonconformances specifically?