Forecasting of Product Returns and Warranty Costs

L

lord85

#1
Hi Everyone,

We are a pump products manufacturer and we are planning to release new products to the market. I will put some targets for product' performance. I want to forecast possible product returns and warranty costs after some months. Are there anybody who can help to calculate this or suggest a formula? Which forecast models (weibull, waterfall, weighted average etc.) do you use?

:thanx: in advance.
 
Elsmar Forum Sponsor

Bev D

Heretical Statistician
Staff member
Super Moderator
#2
straightforward return rates are best. Weibull can put some more statistical precision to the estimate. but the first place to start is: what data do you have so far? have done stress testing? do you have initial life data? The formula you use is dependent on the data you have
 
L

lord85

#3
Dear Bev D,

We are at the start of the project and planning to release the product at the beginning of the 2016. We have done some calculations and tests about the product life but the real life doesn't match generally the calculations because of the production inputs. The base formula for product returns will be [(total failure quantity after sale / total sold product or total produced product) * 1000000] (ppm) and be calculated for every month. Also it should take into account previous produced products for 6 months. I mean the performance review will be for example from 6th month of the year 2015 to 6th month of the year 2016 for whole year of 2016. But the forecast should say to me the possible rates for next period. The system is alive and changeable.
 

Steve Prevette

Deming Disciple
Staff member
Super Moderator
#4
Yes, some form of reliability analysis ought to be able to predict failure rates from results of your intial product testing data and/or specifications , in conjunction with project sales figures.

Then, once you start gathering actual returns and warranty costs, some form of statistical analysis (such as SPC) is in order to see if the returns and warranty costs (after some form of start up ramp) reach stability and actual predicatability.

Yes, I'd be willing to by PM assist, but yes, would need access to your existing data.
 

charanjit singh

Involved In Discussions
#5
I have a few questions for you on this subject:

1. Is this pump a totally a new design?
2. Is it a modified/improved version of some of your existing products? Have
you at least theoretically evaluated the effect of the changes on the
performance/useful-life of the modified model?
3. If it is modified version, do you have performance/field returns/warranty
failure data of the old version?.
4. Is this pump meant for a new application? If so, have you evaluated some
prototype models under the anticipated application/environment? How
does the performance of prototypes compare with the design
specifications?
5. What is your field-experience (customer complaints, warranty
replacements etc.) with various products that you manufacture
and supply to market?

There could be some more questions to consider, but for the present these. I think these are of primary consideration.

Hope this helps.
 
Thread starter Similar threads Forum Replies Date
S Forecasting and Material Planning - Are formal procedures required? Document Control Systems, Procedures, Forms and Templates 3
O Sales Forecasting by Using Time Series Decomposition [Minitab] Using Minitab Software 4
R Forecasting as an improvement project Preventive Action and Continuous Improvement 5
M R&R Studies - how many? per product? Reliability Analysis - Predictions, Testing and Standards 3
A Eudamed actor registrations if you change AR for MDR product EU Medical Device Regulations 0
S Reliability issue - Frequent component failure of the product Reliability Analysis - Predictions, Testing and Standards 0
R Statistical Methods for comparing test and reference product equivalence for quality attributes US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) 3
T Do I need to add non-product related service providers to my ASL? AS9100, IAQG, NADCAP and Aerospace related Standards and Requirements 12
L How to deal with the model number symbol for X-RAY PRODUCT Other Medical Device Related Standards 1
B Establishment and Product Registration Procedure - UK & EU UK Medical Device Regulations 0
I Is SRN required for a contract manufacturer (CE-Marking product)? EU Medical Device Regulations 2
M Process & Product Characteristic in Control Plan FMEA and Control Plans 17
L 1 product multiple factories EU Medical Device Regulations 0
C Product Lifetime on Labeling 21 CFR Part 820 - US FDA Quality System Regulations (QSR) 2
B Acquired Medical Device Product Line - Documentation Requirements for Device Master Record ISO 13485:2016 - Medical Device Quality Management Systems 7
P API Q1 - Monogram Product & API 4F - Proof Load Test Oil and Gas Industry Standards and Regulations 3
R CE marked product sold in UK no EU rep CE Marking (Conformité Européene) / CB Scheme 2
JoCam On-product labels for Medical Devices EU Medical Device Regulations 3
Awais How to mistake proof - Shipping Orders with Shortages - Product Quantity Accountability mismatch with Job Traveller? Manufacturing and Related Processes 17
L Product and process Deviation procedure Manufacturing and Related Processes 1
H Using/Selling power banks with your product as a "mobile version" CE Marking (Conformité Européene) / CB Scheme 3
H Electronic care product on patient bed side - Flammability requirements (62368-1) Hospitals, Clinics & other Health Care Providers 0
B Design Responsibilities for Mature Acquired Product Lines ISO 13485:2016 - Medical Device Quality Management Systems 3
D Dental application - medical product or not? Other US Medical Device Regulations 8
Q Product Quality vs Product Defects Manufacturing and Related Processes 4
J Verification of purchased product / supplier questionnaires ISO 13485:2016 - Medical Device Quality Management Systems 2
E Any template/ form of Monitoring and Measurement of Processes and product to ISO 13485? ISO 13485:2016 - Medical Device Quality Management Systems 1
S Product Code 510(k) exemption US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) 1
M REACH assessment of PCBA/finished product REACH and RoHS Conversations 2
J Validity of CE mark on distributed product when company ceases trading EU Medical Device Regulations 3
Q News cradle to grave - Product life cycle ISO 14001:2015 Specific Discussions 5
J Using of CE marking - Two CE markings on the product CE Marking (Conformité Européene) / CB Scheme 5
W Final Report re: Market withdrawal of radiation-emitting product Other US Medical Device Regulations 0
M Combination Product - New MAA EU Medical Device Regulations 0
pbojsen ISO 13485 Requirements versus FDA product classification and GMP exemptions - Audits ISO 13485:2016 - Medical Device Quality Management Systems 3
Z REACH compliance for low volume product REACH and RoHS Conversations 1
chris1price Notified Body responsible for product safety under MDD? EU Medical Device Regulations 4
S Does a refurbished product required a new UDI? US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) 3
lanley liao How to understand and master the requirements of each section in API monogram product. Oil and Gas Industry Standards and Regulations 5
H Verification Process for the existing MDS Product IEC 62304 - Medical Device Software Life Cycle Processes 5
A UDI for product already packed up EU Medical Device Regulations 0
A Migrating from whole product CE marking to modular approach CE Marking (Conformité Européene) / CB Scheme 5
H Medical device Product Registration Registrars and Notified Bodies 2
A Can a power Supply be an accessory to a medical device, if it is an 'off-the-shelf' product. IEC 60601 - Medical Electrical Equipment Safety Standards Series 3
M Extension to shelf life of new product under MDR EU Medical Device Regulations 1
lanley liao Are there guidelines for application of all API monogrammal product? Oil and Gas Industry Standards and Regulations 2
S ISO 11137- Simulated product vs SIP Other Medical Device Related Standards 2
K Interesting Discussion "World Class Product" based QM. I need advice. Quality Management System (QMS) Manuals 14
R IATF 16949 Certification for new site with transferred product--what is the impact with CSR and scorecards? IATF 16949 - Automotive Quality Systems Standard 4
William55401 Distributed By Product - Best Practices for Configuration Management and Purchasing Controls ISO 13485:2016 - Medical Device Quality Management Systems 0

Similar threads

Top Bottom