Actually, Erik's analysis isn't solid, but then he's a lawyer, not a statistician. My comments are on his blog, but the cliff notes are that MedTech Europe reported that some of its members said that MDD certificates had been taking 3-9 months before the crunch started, sometime in 2017. Erik managed to mangle this into an "average" of 6 months and then added "at least," but of course, if MedTech Europe's data were solid, 3-9 months meant they were taking at least 3 months, not at least 6.
One problem is that there is no universally accepted starting point for EU certification timelines. And no transparency, so it's all just rumor. I recently asked someone at an NB who was responsible for certification management about the MedTech Europe data, and they saw it the same way: "What do manufacturers think when they say "time for conformity assessment"? Is it time from offer approval till receiving the certificate? Or maybe the time from 1st day of the audit till report." And the different NBs have handled the certification process differently, so different companies don't all have the same starting points to choose from.
My own take is that this is totally uncharted territory, and how long things used to take are not likely to be predictive of how long they will take going forward. I am expecting at least some of the NBs to have a few tricks up their sleeves.