Interesting graphic of BCS (college football coaches' ballots) Poll

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Tim Folkerts

Super Moderator
#2
Re: Interesting graphic of BCS Poll

The two outliers that stand out to me are

  1. Mike Leach ranking his own Texas Tech at #2, when the average put them at #8
  2. Urban Meyer putting Mississippi - the one team that beat his Florida team - at #12 when the average put them #24.
Perhaps these polls need drop the top and bottom scores, too, like the computer rankings do. These two rankings in particular seem out of line. Then one specific coach with either a grudge or an overly optimistic view would not be able to skew the results so much.
 

Scott Catron

True Artisan
Super Moderator
#3
Gary Pinkel, the Missouri coach, has the non-BCS conference teams rated much lower then the final polls:

#15 Utah (their lowest ranking by any coach) - #7 in the poll
#16 Boise State (their lowest ranking by any coach) - #9
#17 TCU (their lowest ranking by any coach) - #11
#19 BYU - #16
 

howste

Thaumaturge
Super Moderator
#4
I looked at the outliers and came to the same conclusion you did, Scott. Gary Pinkel seems to be out of touch or deliberately biased.
 

Tim Folkerts

Super Moderator
#5
It is hard to compare apples and oranges (different conferences) let alone apple and apple (within a division). And there is also the question of how you rank teams - based on how they have done, or how good you truly think they are.

For example, consider Ball State. Last week they were 12-0 against weak opponents and ranked #12 in the AP poll. This week they are 12-1 and #22 after losing badly to an unranked team. Gary Pinkel probably had them ranked well below #12 last week (and he has them out of the top 25 altogether this week). In some sense, Pinkel may have been the most accurate last week when he presumably ranked Ball state someplace clsoe to #22.

Also, while there is considerable skill in football, there is considerable luck too. And as the Red Bead Experiment points out, the same process will lead to considerable spread in results. if you take a bunch of teams that are good enough to be 9-3, some will have a lucky year and end up 11-1 or even 12-0; others will end up 6-6. (See LSU for a recent example.)

Tim
 

Scott Catron

True Artisan
Super Moderator
#6
Some of Pinkel's rankings are a bit ridiculous. He's got the following teams ahead of Utah (12-0 including wins over TCU, BYU and Oregon State):

Cincinnati, 9-3 with a 24-point loss to UConn
Georgia Tech, 9-3 with a loss to Virginia and a 21-point loss to North Carolina
Michigan State, 9-3 with a 38-point loss to Ohio State and a 31-point loss to Penn State.

I guess the question is, do you rank based on
(a) performance to date
or
(b) how you think things turn out at the end of the season.

Pinkel must be doing (b) and will be vindicated if all those teams perform poorly in their bowl games.
 
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