Informational Interesting read for risk managers – The Psychology of Prediction

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John Broomfield

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#2
Marcelo,

Thank you very much, a fascinating read.

Prediction may be helped by careful thinking about leading indicators.

When my friend quit doing home appraisals abruptly in 2005 and another friend quit her university job in 2006 to become a mortgage advisor my wife and I put our home on the market.

It was the only home our realtor sold that year as we moved into our rented home.

After a couple of years we bought again but with cash.

Of course, leading indicators can be great for timely preventive action too.

John
 
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