Predicting COVID-19 Aspects - Pandemic Modeling (Easter 2020)

john.b

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#11
I just looked up the current numbers, and they seem to be right around where daily new case totals were in March, or maybe just slightly over. That's in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, and England, with Eastern / Central Europe maybe a bit worse than the first wave. I'm not sure that they "don't care" but the deaths stats do trail behind new case counts, and the intensive care facilities should take time to fill too.

It's curious. Per one of the first Google-search references this is mainly from August holiday travel contact. German and Swiss friends mentioned going on vacations then and I asked both if they thought it would be an issue, and they just didn't know, but they guessed not.
 
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Raisin picker

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#12
As far as i know, part of the high numbers is because of the multifold increased numbers of tests compared to spring. But then, the rate of positive tests is also inreasing very much, so yes, the second wave is coming here.

The discussion about the causes is still ongoing. In my personal opinion, it is a combination of effects (based on my personal experience in Germany):
- restrictions were loosened during summer because of the low numbers, and nothing happened at that time.
- people went on holiday, sometimes in areas with an already high risk of infection, without repercussions.
- weather got cold, more people are meeting indoors, more people are driving in public transport.
- politicians are afraid to tighten the restrictions too much too soon.
- in Germany, the rules change from state to state, from week to week, and sometimes even from county to county. Noone knows what is the right or correct way to behave at a given time at a given place.
- It is still not for everyone clear what measures help the most: distance, disinfection (outside, not ingested), face masks, ventilation, ... Many peple use that as an excuse to use neither.
- a lot of interest groups put their own interests above the public health, e.g. restaurants, hotels, Bundesliga, etc. It is telling that one of the first shops to reopen after the lockdown, apart from food stores (who never were closed), have been car dealers.
 
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