Predicting COVID-19 Aspects - Pandemic Modeling (Easter 2020)

john.b

Involved In Discussions
#11
I just looked up the current numbers, and they seem to be right around where daily new case totals were in March, or maybe just slightly over. That's in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, and England, with Eastern / Central Europe maybe a bit worse than the first wave. I'm not sure that they "don't care" but the deaths stats do trail behind new case counts, and the intensive care facilities should take time to fill too.

It's curious. Per one of the first Google-search references this is mainly from August holiday travel contact. German and Swiss friends mentioned going on vacations then and I asked both if they thought it would be an issue, and they just didn't know, but they guessed not.
 
Elsmar Forum Sponsor

Raisin picker

Involved In Discussions
#12
As far as i know, part of the high numbers is because of the multifold increased numbers of tests compared to spring. But then, the rate of positive tests is also inreasing very much, so yes, the second wave is coming here.

The discussion about the causes is still ongoing. In my personal opinion, it is a combination of effects (based on my personal experience in Germany):
- restrictions were loosened during summer because of the low numbers, and nothing happened at that time.
- people went on holiday, sometimes in areas with an already high risk of infection, without repercussions.
- weather got cold, more people are meeting indoors, more people are driving in public transport.
- politicians are afraid to tighten the restrictions too much too soon.
- in Germany, the rules change from state to state, from week to week, and sometimes even from county to county. Noone knows what is the right or correct way to behave at a given time at a given place.
- It is still not for everyone clear what measures help the most: distance, disinfection (outside, not ingested), face masks, ventilation, ... Many peple use that as an excuse to use neither.
- a lot of interest groups put their own interests above the public health, e.g. restaurants, hotels, Bundesliga, etc. It is telling that one of the first shops to reopen after the lockdown, apart from food stores (who never were closed), have been car dealers.
 
#14
Since I am retired and have nothing else to do I started charting the coronavirus data for Ohio. The original plan was to check the forecasts against actual results. Eventually I collected enough information to try a control chart and it explained why it was difficult to forecast it. Eventually I split the control chart into three phases. Ohio was improving through June and then everything went in the wrong direction. I started adding notes on the various special events like testing in prisons and nursing homes, holidays, the protests, and state lockdown and reopening of businesses. Please excuse my handwritten notes since I do not have access to the same SPC software I used when working.

View attachment 27000

Nothing seemed to match up with the variations until I compared the number of daily tests that were being done. Early in the pandemic, testing was not as available and mainly used in hospitals, nursing homes and prisons where there were outbreaks. In the second phase the tests became more readily available. The recent surge in July is also when testing has increased and is available to people who have symptoms but do not need hospitalizations. The daily rate of testing is at its highest rate in the last two weeks.

The recent surge may be misleading when compared to the history. If the testing would have been higher in the previous phases it is possible that the number of confirmed cases would also been higher because it would have included more non-hospitalized cases of people who could not get tested. The surge may not be real since the initial reports might have been higher and the apparent surge would not be as significant.
I too have been charting the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ohio; however, once there was abundant data I switched from daily cases to weekly cases. After experiencing a run of 10 weeks decreasing, we are clearly out of control having just completed the 9th week increasing. Weekly Change in Number of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases in Ohio.png
 

Antonio Vieira

Involved - Posts
Trusted Information Resource
#16
Unfortunately the actual vaccines do not prevent against the transmission of this virus.
We can see that for example in my country where almost everybody got the second shoot, and we still have lots of new cases everyday.
 

Antonio Vieira

Involved - Posts
Trusted Information Resource
#18
The number of deaths here is now in fact low, daily average July 8,5, August 12,3 and September 9,5 (until today), but the number of new cases isnot as low as it could be. daily average July 2873, August 2235 and September 1393 (until today).
The main problem with an high number of transmission is that it increases the possibility of new variants, that could reduce the vaccines effectiveness.
 

Mikey324

Quite Involved in Discussions
#20
The vaccine is our best bet on getting back to some type of "normal". Nothing will ever be 100%, and no, we don't know what's in the vaccines. I also don't know what was in all the other vaccines I've gotten.

It comes down to risk management. The vaccine appears to do well at limiting the severity of the virus in break through cases. Seems like its worth rolling the dice on.
 
Thread starter Similar threads Forum Replies Date
Z Predicting External PPM Capability from Internal PPM Capability, Accuracy and Stability - Processes, Machines, etc. 1
E Predicting Machined Components Capability based on Historical Data of Similar Parts Capability, Accuracy and Stability - Processes, Machines, etc. 1
Marc Predicting the Future through 19th Century French Post Cards Coffee Break and Water Cooler Discussions 1
Hami812 Predicting the outcome using high No Trouble Found Rate Statistical Analysis Tools, Techniques and SPC 4
N Using Regression Analysis in Excel - Predicting a Value Statistical Analysis Tools, Techniques and SPC 30
Q Reliability Prediction - Predicting the Reliability of an Inductor (Semi-conductor) Reliability Analysis - Predictions, Testing and Standards 8
Marc Predicting the Internet in 1995 After Work and Weekend Discussion Topics 0
C Statistical technique sought for predicting replacement of perishable tooling Statistical Analysis Tools, Techniques and SPC 14
J Covid discussion in other countries Coffee Break and Water Cooler Discussions 19
qualprod Examples to mitigate risk from Covid ISO 9000, ISO 9001, and ISO 9004 Quality Management Systems Standards 7
Ed Panek COVID 19 Exception and MDSAP Canada Medical Device Regulations 5
N Covid-19 vaccine Coffee Break and Water Cooler Discussions 12
M ISO 9001 Major Nonconformance Internal Audit Schedule/COVID-19 ISO 9000, ISO 9001, and ISO 9004 Quality Management Systems Standards 18
optomist1 Interesting Discussion Combating COVID 19 Coffee Break and Water Cooler Discussions 3
G We want to add Covid-2 /19 to our air filter 510 K Medical Device and FDA Regulations and Standards News 0
qualprod Valid actions for not recurrence (Covid-19) ISO 9000, ISO 9001, and ISO 9004 Quality Management Systems Standards 12
G IATF Rules for COVID 5th revision - Re-certification audit timing IATF 16949 - Automotive Quality Systems Standard 3
B Revision 5 to IATF Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid -19) IATF 16949 - Automotive Quality Systems Standard 0
Inggo28 Products Potentially Infected by Covid - 19 Human Factors and Ergonomics in Engineering 1
T COVID, Furlough and ISO9001 Surveillance Audit Coffee Break and Water Cooler Discussions 2
L Exemption from the Regulation COVID-19 and QMS requirements EU Medical Device Regulations 2
P Human Factors / Usability validation in the time of COVID Human Factors and Ergonomics in Engineering 17
shimonv Worthwhileness for a small startups to apply for EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) for COVID-19 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) 17
M Extraordinary measures due to COVID Manufacturing and Related Processes 2
L Internal audit during COVID-19 restrictions ISO 13485:2016 - Medical Device Quality Management Systems 5
B Certificate Suspension? Shut down due to Covid-19 IATF 16949 - Automotive Quality Systems Standard 14
qualprod Documented actions and changes in the QMS by COVID 19 ISO 9000, ISO 9001, and ISO 9004 Quality Management Systems Standards 10
John Broomfield Guidance on Safe Working During Covid-19 Pandemic Misc. Quality Assurance and Business Systems Related Topics 5
Govind Informational ISO COVID-19 response: freely available ISO standards Other ISO and International Standards and European Regulations 1
H Layered audit updates after COVID-19 shutdowns Process Audits and Layered Process Audits 0
M Covid Free Statements for Implants and sales reps. ISO 9000, ISO 9001, and ISO 9004 Quality Management Systems Standards 5
P Supplier Audits in the wake of COVID-19 ISO 14971 - Medical Device Risk Management 3
K EUA for COVID-19 Prognostics Other US Medical Device Regulations 1
F Will the EU postpone 2017/745 MDR Implementation - COVID-19 Impact Medical Device and FDA Regulations and Standards News 11
D Audit for ISO and AS 91XX and mitigating exposure to COVID-19 AS9100, IAQG, NADCAP and Aerospace related Standards and Requirements 14
D Postpone IATF 16949 audit due to COVID-19 IATF 16949 - Automotive Quality Systems Standard 41
K EQMS provider's pledge to COVID-19 Misc. Quality Assurance and Business Systems Related Topics 1
Tagin Is SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 on your risk register? Misc. Quality Assurance and Business Systems Related Topics 11
S How to Learn all aspects of ISO 27001:2013 | The best way to grab the knowledge on 27001:2013 (Step by Step) IEC 27001 - Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) 7
A Domain of the component (EASA CM No.: CM-SWCEH-001 Issue 01 Revision 02) Point 9.3.3 (Usage domain aspects) EASA and JAA Aviation Standards and Requirements 0
B Interesting Discussion The legal aspects of Customer Specific Requirements (Contract Law). IATF 16949 - Automotive Quality Systems Standard 12
V Environmental aspects in a bank ISO 14001:2015 Specific Discussions 7
C Legal or Regulatory Requirements as identified in our Environmental Aspects ISO 14001:2015 Specific Discussions 9
qualprod Propose Aspects to evaluate risk impact? ISO 9000, ISO 9001, and ISO 9004 Quality Management Systems Standards 1
K Trying to figure out what satisfies a few aspects of IEC 62304 IEC 62304 - Medical Device Software Life Cycle Processes 2
Pmarszal Label Printing: Medical Device related UDI Requirements - GUDID Aspects Other US Medical Device Regulations 0
Paul Simpson Does Knowledge Management include aspects of Information Security? ISO 9000, ISO 9001, and ISO 9004 Quality Management Systems Standards 7
Pmarszal Two Questions on UDI Product Description (GS1 US and GTIN aspects) Other US Medical Device Regulations 2
B ISO 14001:2015 Aspects and Impacts: Haze occurrence (Supplier related) ISO 14001:2015 Specific Discussions 3
M First Article Build (FAB) Process - Build and Test Aspects AS9100, IAQG, NADCAP and Aerospace related Standards and Requirements 3

Similar threads

Top Bottom