The near future will be better?

M

Martin IT

#1
Yesterday evening I used my free-evening to see the TV alone. I switched on it and I started to see a talk show with economists and politicians. They told about the world crisis and ( of course ) the opinions were different either over the deeply of the crisis and its duration and if it could considered concluded or not.

My question is the spring will arrive soon?

Has the worst moment passed?
 
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SteelMaiden

Super Moderator
Super Moderator
#3
Ha! Sad but true, Marc. I think everyone is looking to their magic 8 balls to predict the future. My :2cents:? It's not going to be an easy recovery, and it may take a long time. On one hand, I've recovered a great deal of the money I lost in my retirement, and I recovered it pretty quickly. On the other hand, I don't know from one day to the next where I will be standing. I feel like a bungee jumper. I'm pretty certain I'll make it out alive, but the ride has been up and down and filled with near misses. I don't think that the experts have much on us common folk at this point.
 
B

Bill Pflanz

#5
I also have recovered my retirement savings. People tend to focus on the present rather than the long term when evaluating the economy. Remember that economists are known to have predicted 10 out of the last 7 recessions. Their record of forecasting is not much better than weather people.

I still believe the recession that was around 1981-82 was worse than this one. Mortgage rates were 16+%, inflation was 10+%, unemployment was 10+%, and the stock market was stagnant. That said, times have moved on and that recession looks like a small blip when you look at the history of the stock market. Over the short run the stock market has normal variation but over the long run it increases about 9%.

I am not concerned about the deficits over the long run because it obviously cannot grow indefinitely or it would absorb the entire national wealth. Something will change - either higher taxes, lower spending or more than likely both.

Bill Pflanz
 

gpainter

Quite Involved in Discussions
#6
I vote for the 8 ball. I believe that there will be a retraction of gains the last of 2010 or the first of 2011. If gas continues to increase, it may be sooner. The stock market has over-inflated itself again sending an untrue picture of the economy and we will more than likely see huge drops by mid to early 2011. December 2012 will be the end anyhow, so why worry :notme:
 

bobdoering

Stop X-bar/R Madness!!
Trusted Information Resource
#7
I would say the media's statements on the economy are leading indicators by about 2 years. If they say you are in a recession, you will probably be in one in 2 years. If they say you are recovering, real recovery will likely occur in 2 years.
 
M

mguilbert

#8
At the ISO 9000 and LSS International Conference in Orlando I saw a presentation about upcoming retirements. They predict in the next ten years employment prospects should improve. A survey of Fortune 500 compaines say that they expect to lose 40% of their skilled workforce here in the US as the Boomers head into retirement. Could be good. Could be bad as that knowledge base leaves.
Also one thing, I predict is as the boomers retire they will be pulling money out of their 401k and investment plans thus lowering values for the rest of us. But we will be gaining more shares per dollar invested. I believe most investors in the know knew this was coming and cashed out before the boomers could, thus realizing gains to buy back at later date when prices are low. I think as investors, we should be prepared for more drops as the boomers cash out and stop contributing to their retirements.:2cents:
 
B

Bill Pflanz

#9
I would say the media's statements on the economy are leading indicators by about 2 years. If they say you are in a recession, you will probably be in one in 2 years. If they say you are recovering, real recovery will likely occur in 2 years.
The way a recession is determined is by waiting until the historical data shows a downword trend. It takes about a year to really verify a recession has occurred so the economist back dates the start of it. The same happens on the recovery. We will be a year into the recovery before the economists identify the end of the recession. What the economists are saying now is merely opinion. After the recession ends is when we will hear how many of them brag about getting the forecast right.

The stock market may give an indication of the economy. It seems to decline about 6 months before the official start of the recession and starts to rebound about 6 months before the official end of the recession.

Bill Pflanz
 

bobdoering

Stop X-bar/R Madness!!
Trusted Information Resource
#10
What the economists are saying now is merely opinion.
That's my point, the particular opinions chosen to be shared by the media - not the technical determination - are usually off by 2 years. Good news is people take little stock in the opinion or there would be quicker consumer sentiment decline.
 
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