Mike S. said:
I find the article to be well written, it is just that I an not so dead-set against setting "targets" -- and maybe Steve really isn't, either.
Is 120 +/-31 not a target? In my small mind, goal is synonymous with target.
. . . But to suggest that we should completely "eliminate management by numbers, numerical goals" is going too far. And based on some quotes from the article, I think that in reality, despite the title and the use of Demings quotes, Steve thinks so, too...
JMO
Yes, it is necessarly to have goals. Even Dr. Deming did acknowledge that, in his higher level discussions of "aim" and also for goals. Goals I place upon myself may be worthwhile, goals imposed on others generally are not.
If I am having my kitchen remodeled, I certainly want the contractor to let me know up front how much it will cost, what will I get, and when will it be done. If I am knowledgeable about risks, I may want some what-if clauses - if my house is uninhabitable beyond the promised delivery, will the contractor pay my rent someplace else? If the contractor misses the deliverable, what is my recourse?
Those promises the contractor makes hopefully are based upon past experience, with the use of some statistical analysis of risks (control charts at least). I may even ask to see their past performance as the customer, which may help me in judging what my risks are.
But do I care how much the contractor pays his electrician? How much idle time there was during the project? What is the ratio of labor hours to material costs? No, I don't directly care. Does the contractor care? Yes. But my position is that it does little good for the contractor to establish internal targets/ numerical goals for those parameters. If they are of value, control chart them, understand them. Six sigma goes way overboard in requiring targets for EVERY measure (else how can you tell if you are six sigma capable?).
I work in government contracting. There does seem to be the expectation that targets will be established. For example, when working with radiation exposure, the rules call for estimates to be made of future exposure, and comparisons made. Unfortunately, the actuality of this has led to strange behaviors. A major improvement put into place was to control chart the actual exposures, and to provide a plus or minus band on the estimates. That at least allowed for the best (maximum likelihood) estimate to be supplied, and a worst case beyond which the guilty will be punished (I am being a little sarcastic here, but not much unfortunately).
If you take a look at
https://www.osti.gov/dublincore/gpo/servlets/purl/807100-5YmXpk/native/ there is a paper on our use of SPC and radiation exposure analysis.
I still feel that the general rule for life (at least my life) is to eliminate targets and to use SPC to understand the data.
- Steve