What does the future hold for nuclear power?

SteelMaiden

Super Moderator
Super Moderator
#1
I know that several of our Covers have gotten involved with NQA-1 and/or the commercial grade dedication process in the past few years because of the push to expand our nuclear power plant capabilities. I am seeing lots of editorial and/or financial pieces being written on the nuclear power plant program in light of the curent events in Japan and I would like to hear from you what you are hearing. Will we continue the expansion plan? Will it be scrapped?

Word of warning! This is not a thread for controversial discussion. I will pull it should it become a controversial thread. This is meant solely to discuss what the industry is hearing/doing in response to the current situation in Japan.
 
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Randy

Super Moderator
#2
We will see more in the future as a viable alternative to fossil based fuel power generation with the biggest obstacles continuing to be safety and disposal of wastes.
 

Wes Bucey

Quite Involved in Discussions
#3
I see this as a mere blip on the screen. Nuclear industry will create and implement more safety and backup features to protect against the ravages of "1,000 year events" such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, etc. just as Japan and San Francisco have been tweaking building codes to create buildings able to withstand earthquakes. The fact that some buildings failed merely means "more tweaking" to a rational person. Only Chicken Little is running around crying, "the sky is falling!"

In our "get it done" culture, a warning is a signal to find a solution, NOT stop progress. This earthquake was a warning from Nature, not an ultimatum.
 
M

mguilbert

#4
Today at the International ISO conference in San Antonio, I sat next to man whose employer is a supplier of infrastructure to the Nuclear Power industry. He said they are taking a wait and see posture in light of recent events. US orders have picked up before this incident but fears they may slow now.
 
T

True Position

#5
Compared to it's major alternatives (coal / perhaps natural gas?) even with this accident nuclear power has a much greater safety record per TWh.

A 40 year old reactor design was hit by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake, followed up by a tsunami, had loss of multiple cooling system; and the result is looking to be some minor radiation leakage similar to living in Denver.

Now, is the main containment building fails then possibly some rethinking is in order, but most of that has already been done and is included in the new Gen3 designs. Also, not building them near fault lines, but Japan doesn't have a lot of choice in the matter.
 
M

MIREGMGR

#6
My guess is that, counter to conventional wisdom, current events will have the effect of progressively increasing orders for next-gen plants to replace sooner-decommissioned boiling-water-technology plants and other older designs that require active stabilization at some points in their operating envelope.

Germany decided a few years ago to move toward decommissioning a large number of plants, then backtracked when the electorate swung left to right. My expectation is that Germany will head in that direction again, but since the long-term-intended solutions (renewables, conservation) aren't ready yet and a right administration holds power, they'll replace the older nuke plants with newer ones.

Germany probably is best situated of all the major countries other than China to afford such a change right now.

I'd guess Japan might make such a change too, unfavorable national economics notwithstanding.
 
#7
One thing is certain: In the short term at least, the nuclear industry world wide will have a huge PR issue to deal with, as opinions will be swayed by the events in Japan. Long term? Who knows... At any rate we do not have realistic alternatives ready to replace it with. Maybe R&D will get a boost?

Only Chicken Little is running around crying, "the sky is falling!"
Well said. Unfortunately the world is full of Chicken Littles..

/Claes
 

SteelMaiden

Super Moderator
Super Moderator
#8
Only Chicken Little is running around crying, "the sky is falling!"
Well said. Unfortunately the world is full of Chicken Littles..

/Claes
Exactly.

I've read some articles in the past couple of days. They were negative to continuing the program, but I'm sure there are positive ones also if I chose to look for them. Most of the time I take anything I see or read in the news with a huge dose of skepticism. Which is why I've asked the question here, to see what is being said in the land of real people, supplying real products, for the real world.
 

bobdoering

Stop X-bar/R Madness!!
Trusted Information Resource
#9
I am certain that the public perception of nuclear energy will swing - again - back to the more concerned context of the 1970's, when environmentalists all but stalled the nuclear industry for 30 years. It could be that in their mind they will be comparing carbon footprint to nuclear footprint, and coming to some new conclusions. But, the memory of the public opinion is short (as in 9/11), and one day it will swing back. It is a natural progression between paranoia and total ambivalence and back. It occurs on a lot of topics.

So, what the industry will do is divert a lot of resources to recoup their place under the radar. As a part of that they will look at the most public failures - such as the cooling pump power supplies - and attempt to make them more acceptable. You can not make them indestructible, but you may have to step it up to calm the public fears for a while.
 
M

MIREGMGR

#10
I think it's relatively clear that there will be additional design code expectations. The long-ago-GE-designed Japanese plants, for instance, have their electrical system control and junction point in a below-grade space that is not protected from flooding and has problematic access during radiological-emergency conditions. The tsunami didn't kill the diesel generators merely by flooding only that hardware; the primary problem was that the salt water flood effectively destroyed, to varying degrees, four of the six plants' electrical systems. Thus while the generators themselves could be easily replaced on an emergency basis, the wiring to the system pumps and controls they were to power is out of action, and temporary wiring is in some cases impossible because of the radiological conditions and other hazards. Thus the need to bring in fire trucks as temporary self-contained pumps, even though with much less pressure and flow capacity and obviously much less durability in continuous duty pumping salt water.

I'm fairly sure future codes will require secondary and tertiary systems and plans for more complex combinations of failure.
 
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