Y2K books or websites

R

Roger Eastin

#1
Does anyone know of good (level-headed)books or websites about Y2K issues? Boy, there is a bunch of stuff out there that either downplays the situation or scares you half to death! Then, depending on whether you listen to a Congressperson or someone in the Administration, you can hear that the federal government has all its problems solved or is way behind! Thanks for any help you can give me.
 
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Marc

Hunkered Down for the Duration
Staff member
Admin
#2
I must admit I don't off hand. I have come to the conclusion that there will hardly be so much as a wimper after Dec 31, 1999.

You think catastrophy?
 

barb butrym

Quite Involved in Discussions
#3
guess I am somewhere in-between....

There are some systems that will shut down, if not fixed......most will just screw up and make life miserable. The key to it all is the impact analysis, which if not done properly, is worse than not doing anything.
A while back a consultant from NZ tried to convince me to get into monitoring the consultants for the companies to ensure that they had systems in place that would ensure a 'quality' impact analysis...the dollars he sited were in the millions for 2 years work. BUT I chickened out, it was way over my head.....he didn't think so, but I did. I helped him get his consulting company system ready, and we prepared an ISO type presentation for him to present to his potential clients. It was fun, it has been very profitable for him (he is getting his millions)...he is a programmer, and now has 50+ people working for him on this project. he says teh little prep work we did has made the transition from a handfull of employees to what he has (now, worldwide)an easy task.

Anyway....I learned a bundle about the Y2K stuff from him.

The issues are in how much control the computer has on your manufacturing systems..automation, data transfer. MRP, ...financial issues are the worst....anything that triggers on a date....interest, payouts, life insurance, birth (age)....delivery dates, archived files

Problem is some programs have hidden dates....And you are at the mercy of your suppliers.....did they do it correctly? there are some people doing a "fix" and leaving the company with a false sence of security....and have in actuality done nothing. And there are systems out there that are still selling (sale prices...), that are not compliant.

Anyway.....i expect messy at best.
 
R

Roger Eastin

#4
Thanks for the replies. Barb - you give me a lot to think about. I have heard that the hidden dates are the most problematic. Personally, I am storing some "essential" items (food, water - though, I don't think I'll buy a generator) personally, but there are such a plethora of views on what will happen and for HOW LONG, that it is hard to know. My expectation is that this thing will be exponential in impact(the biggest hit being within the first 3-5 days), with the total length of time being about 1-1.5 months. However, others believe it will last 3 months or more! Anyway, thanks for the info.
 

Marc

Hunkered Down for the Duration
Staff member
Admin
#5
Do any of you understand the issue of leap year on y2k?

If we can come to some defined limits, we can start a pool on how 'bad' y2k will be. I say wimper, at best. Barb says messy (at least?). I bet the biggest problem will be in personal lives - like a 10 year old VCR. Stuff like that. Annoyance. I bet there will be absolutely no significant food or other general neccesity shortage or significant supply problems. That cash machines will work and banks will experience few problems. That planes will be flying and on schedule (for as much as they're on schedule now).

Problems will be from embedded discrete devices (like the VRC chips). Every company I have been in as of late has assesses everything from PCs on desks to equipment controllers (discrete devices) to HVAC controllers.

Last winter there was a good article on y2k in Scientific American. Very detailed and relevant. Even went into the leap year aspect. It also gave reasons why y2k failures in various discrete devices may not show up for 4 years - or any time in between. But again, most of this will be in things like consumer appliances like VCRs and such. If your video camera has a date stamp function, is it y2k compliant (discrete device)?

Me - no - well, I have a cistern and burn wood during the winter, but I'm not intending on 'stocking up' on food or gasoline, much less buying a generator.

I thought of a generator as out here where I live the electricity does go out for a few hours now and again. But when I thought of this about 3 years ago - not in regard to y2k but in regard to the fact that 'there could be an outage for a week or so during a winter storm or something' - I found that a decent 4500 watt burned quite a bit of fuel a day (I can't remember - I think it was 5 to 10 gallons or something like that a day [24 hours]) - I figured then comes the 50 gallon or 100 gallon storage tank. With it comes environmental hassles, etc. I decided if the electric does go out for a week - well, I'll have enough wood. Like in QS where you have to have contingency plans, the question becomes how far are you willing to go? Will you build a tornado 'proof' room in your house (about a $4K investment minimum)? If you buy that emergency generator how much fuel will you store and where? You have to change out the fuel once a year at least - gasoline does evaporate and concentrate and otherwise reacts. Same with food and water.

Maybe I'm the lazy grasshopper, but I don't believe there will be trouble of any significance.
 

barb butrym

Quite Involved in Discussions
#6
I agree with marc on the essentials issues, I will however have a bit more wood than usual...as i only burn it for 'fun' and ambiance right now. Food, well I am a hoarder of groceries anyway.....no big deal, just hate shopping..so that will be business as usual. Have a cell phone, with car adapter...so need to think about that....guess i will be ready. the local bank has just completed its 'tests ' and all is fine, so I have no worries there either...as with my insurance company...so if i die the kids will be ok...LOL

Seriously, I see the planes and utilities ok....manufacturing systems and stuff will be messy as i predict, gadget people will be inconvienienced BUT i could use a break,,,so what the hell...stalled and limping we will all get through it ...its the American way
 
R

Roger Eastin

#7
I just read an article by Peter de Yager, the guy who cried about the Y2K stuff 6 years ago. He is credited with "discovering" the magnitude of the Y2K problem. He stated that he is off his "the sky is falling" cry and says that,due to the work of banks, major utilities, & communications people, problems with Y2K will be "confined" to smaller businesses, local concerns(utility co-ops, imbedded chips in VCRs, etc) and foreign concerns. From a domestic standpoint, he would probably agree with Marc (annoyances), but he's still not sure what the impact will be (globally) from foreign operations not dealing with the problem. Unfortunately, countries like Russia that desperately need smooth-running operations where they can get them, will more likely be hit by the Y2K problem in a big way. How all this will affect us is anybody's guess.
 

Marc

Hunkered Down for the Duration
Staff member
Admin
#10
Just looking through some of the 'old stuff' - wondering... So many dire predictions.
 
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