J
JaneB
And please don't tell me that the true cause is that I have faulty latent-doofus detection mechanisms.
OK. But only because you insisted already.And please don't tell me that the true cause is that I have faulty latent-doofus detection mechanisms.
OK. But only because you insisted already.
and not the system at fault. 
My experience has been that between 5 and 7 works the best. Much less and you usually do not have enough input and more than 7 degenerates into side conversations etc.In everyone's opinion, what is the most beneficial size of a group when discussing CA's and root causes? The floor manager and QA have a weekly afternoon meeting with about 12-14 staff in attendance. My thought was that if the groups were smaller, maybe 4-5, including the individuals most closely related to the issue/incident, then maybe a better discussion would be had. Definitely not as much side talking, distractions, etc.
Thoughts?
Since it is I to whom Jim is referring, I will try to clarify my position while answering your questions.Jim Wynne
I recall that in a similar thread not long ago, I suggested to someone (who maintained that management is always responsible for errors made by workers) that if he had a method for hiring only people who never make mistakes, he should share it with us.
It can be valuable, but like all metrics, half are above average while half are below average, one is the minimum while one is the maximum. Before praise or reprimands are given, you must be sure that the data point you are looking at is outside what may be predicted. Many views (supervision, quality, HR, ...) should be represented to assure fairness. Make sure that your CAPA system maintains all of those who were potentially involved for Q&A later. It will be valuable to determine if the non-conforming operation was “Human error”, a “System error”, “bad luck”, or the system increased the possibility of “Human error”.Willyboy
…, wouldn't knowing who is the recurring cause of damaged goods be important? What about the metrics of this issue?
Who is having repeated CARs for not securing their loads, Billy Bob or Suzie Que?
No, if half are above and half are below, it's the median, not (necessarily) the average.It can be valuable, but like all metrics, half are above average while half are below average, one is the minimum while one is the maximum.
Whether or not something can be predicted is mostly irrelevant. I understand the value of understanding probability and using the understanding to support decisions, but we shouldn't assume that everything bad that might happen is or was predictable. Furthermore, even when we can predict that something untoward might happen, we might also understand that whatever measures might be necessary to prevent it aren't worth doing. If, for example, we have good reason to believe that a process will create one defective unit in every 10,000 opportunities, we may decide that what's necessary to prevent it is economically unfeasible.Before praise or reprimands are given, you must be sure that the data point you are looking at is outside what may be predicted. Many views (supervision, quality, HR, ...) should be represented to assure fairness. Make sure that your CAPA system maintains all of those who were potentially involved for Q&A later. It will be valuable to determine if the non-conforming operation was “Human error”, a “System error”, “bad luck”, or the system increased the possibility of “Human error”.
I "wish to tolerate" none, but that doesn't mean much. If I've done all I can to prevent it from happening, and it still happens, whether I "tolerate" it or not doesn't mean anything. This idea is of a piece with those execrable things that talk about "If 99% is 'good enough' 400 babies will be dropped on their heads every year." It's not a question of whether some level of defects is good or bad; the idea is that sometimes things happen which (a) couldn't be reasonably predicted or (b) could be predicted but we can't do anything to stop them from happening, either because of the laws of physics or because to stop them from happening wouldn't be economically responsible. No one wants to see babies dropped on their heads, and we should do everything we can to prevent it from happening, but we shouldn't be surprised that when we've done everything we can, babies still get dropped. Nor should we think that because we understand this, that we're "accepting" a certain number of dropped babies.But first, let’s look at the system and “Human error”. How many occurrences of the drivers not securing their loads causing damaged goods per year do you expect and/or wish to tolerate?
If the severity is 10, we should do everything we can to prevent the bad thing from happening, but if you think that we can always eliminate the possibility in every case, you're dreaming. Reduce the probability to the lowest responsible level. Telling people that they always must eliminate or decidedly prevent things from happening in every case is irresponsible.How can we evaluate this? [See the attached Ver. 4, pFMEA Quick Reference Guide]
We can review the shipping or loading function of your pFMEA. You have identified a failure mode of “goods damaged in transit”. The Potential Cause is “driver fails to secure their load before leaving the dock”. What is the Potential Effect? Can the load shift during transit causing instability and rolling the truck [Severity-10]? Or, is it less severe? The load is damaged and has to be inspected / rejected causing line disruption at the customer [S=8]? The load is maybe damaged and has to be inspected [S=6], or is found to be damaged and requires some reworked [S=7]?
If the Severity is [10], then before preceding the team must take action to eliminate the possibility of the load shifting or ensure that the driver cannot leave the dock before securing their load [<1 occurrence in 10,000,000 opportunities].
All of this assumes that failure rates are constant, which is a fact not in evidence. While I heartily agree that we should use the best data we have to make predictions, sometimes the best data we have isn't reliable in terms of making predictions.If the Severity is a [6], [7], or [8] there really is not much difference, because action must be taken if Occurrence is a [4 or higher] for all of those severities. Since I do not have a good history, let’s see what an occurrence of [4] means. A [4] says that we will have <1 occurrence in 10,000 opportunities. That means:
10,000 [opp/occ] / 240 [workdays/year] = 41.67 [opp-years/occ-workdays]
41.67 [opp-years/occ-workdays] / X [# of opportunities/workday] = Y year(s) per occurrence
So, if you load 3 trucks per day that the drivers need to secure before leaving the dock, then
41.67 [opp-years/occ-workdays] / 3 [# of opportunities/workday] = 13.9 year(s) per occurrence
This means that if the team believes that a driver will fail to secure their load before leaving the dock more than once in the next 13.9 years, then management MUST be advised of this risk and mitigation action(s) continued unless advised by management that they will accept this high risk.
You now have a “Human error” vs. a “System (let me down) failure” rate. You can use “Human error” and retaining on a CA every 13.9 years – not every time it happens!
This is true, but trivially so. The idea is to reduce the effects of potential human errors, not to eliminate human error, which is impossible so long as humans can affect the outcome. Not only that, but sometimes preventive measures themselves are subject to human error or the inability to predict all possible failure modes. We might have a method of securing truckloads (or transporting babies) that works 99.9% of the time, but due to experience we believe that it will always work. Just because an event is highly improbable, though, doesn't mean that there must be 10,000 (or 1,000,000) opportunities for it to occur. It might happen this afternoon, or it might never happen. That's the crazy thing about randomness.Note for Jim: Sometimes humans need to be protected from themselves instead of just being perfect.
Although this might be a case of an inappropriate hypothetical being used, this all seems like massive over-complication to me. A properly-secured load might get improperly unsecured after the truck leaves the dock, which is a common occurrence when using common carriers and something the sender is mostly powerless to prevent. You can have thousands of dollars worth of safety equipment, all of which is useless if a human decides to ignore or override it.Let’s look at another scenario. Your company loads 300 trucks per day that the drivers need to secure before leaving the dock, then
10,000/240/300 = 0.139 year(s) per occurrence = 33.3 workdays per occurrence
Now (for this scenario), management does not to wish to tolerate this rate and asks the team to continue to take action. The team must now look at other methods to reduce the occurrence rate. So, are there ways to restage the load to make it unbelievably obvious that it is not secured?
If not, let us examine Detection methods. Currently, you have the driver sign off a check-list. Unfortunately, this process has a remote likelihood [detection = 8] of detecting the failure mode by the driver through a visual / memory means. Remember a human’s propensity to miss items that they have already missed means they will “make a ‘honest’ mistake” in checking the box.
Can we have multiple people check the load for proper securing? Multiple inspections improve the chance of detection but it is not considered a great method. What about having the driver using a variable gage to measure the tension of the securing lines and recording their values on a check-sheet [D=6]? Why not combine the two ideas and have the non-driver inspector record and sign the check-sheet. The driver can then use this as permission to “leaving the dock” [D=4].
These check-sheets can then be audited for process control.[For further info see] Use Benford's Law with Excel by Charley KydThis method will also leave a document falsification trail if deemed necessary later.
Benford's Law addresses an amazing characteristic of data. Not only does his formula help to identify fraud, it could help you to improve your budgets and forecasts.
https://www.exceluser.com/tools/benford_xl11.htm
As for documentation on the pFMEA form you can refer to your CA or PA form issue number where your more detailed thinking can be documented. The 7th step of your 8D CAPA system is then entered into the Actions Taken column of the pFMEA.
Similar methods can be made for “boxes in the walkways”. If the boxes are empty and will be used to place product into, then why were batch produced, over-production, larger than KanBan station number of boxes produced? If the boxes are filled with product, then why is production continuing beyond the pull effect of the EOL KanBan? Is your company forcing the associate to error?
I hope this helps in your thinking and approach towards improvement.
Your management may wish to read Deming’s books. I sat through many of his weeklong training sessions and witnessed the “wrath” of Deming. He would point to the executives and ask them why they did not believe in quality (& lean) and why they blamed their workers.
Absolutely True (as I pointed out), Management has the right to make that decision (but not the pFMEA team – management selected the Severity, Occurrence and Detection rates in their quality policy document that the pFMEA team were to use).Originally Posted by Jim Wynne
If, for example, we have good reason to believe that a process will create one defective unit in every 10,000 opportunities, we may decide that what's necessary to prevent it is economically unfeasible.
A) No one wants to see babies dropped / we should do everything we can to prevent itOriginally Posted by Jim Wynne
I "wish to tolerate" none, but that doesn't mean much. If I've done all I can to prevent it from happening, and it still happens, whether I "tolerate" it or not doesn't mean anything.
… or because to stop them from happening wouldn't be economically responsible.
No one wants to see babies dropped on their heads, and we should do everything we can to prevent it from happening, but we shouldn't be surprised that when we've done everything we can, babies still get dropped. Nor should we think that because we understand this, that we're "accepting" a certain number of dropped babies.
Dreaming – maybe. What risk am I willing to tolerate? See above.Originally Posted by Jim Wynne
If the severity is 10, we should do everything we can to prevent the bad thing from happening, but if you think that we can always eliminate the possibility in every case, you're dreaming. Reduce the probability to the lowest responsible level. Telling people that they always must eliminate or decidedly prevent things from happening in every case is irresponsible.
You are correct. But, how will you and your company respond when your logistics carrier damages two of your shipments within a two-week period and sends you CAR responses stating that it was “human error” and they have retrained the driver. Would you and your company accept (tolerate) the responses or would you and your company be unreasonable and be on the phone getting a new shipping company? See above.Originally Posted by Jim Wynne
We might have a method of securing truckloads (or transporting babies) that works 99.9% of the time, but due to experience we believe that it will always work. Just because an event is highly improbable, though, doesn't mean that there must be 10,000 (or 1,000,000) opportunities for it to occur. It might happen this afternoon, or it might never happen. That's the crazy thing about randomness.
“… when using common carriers …” – If the load is on a common carrier then the shipping function belongs to the carrier, and therefore, as you point out the sender cannot control that carrier’s risk assessment. But, they can review their pFMEA and Control Plans and, as we saw above, they can control which carrier that they use.Originally Posted by Jim Wynne
Although this might be a case of an inappropriate hypothetical being used, this all seems like massive over-complication to me. A properly-secured load might get improperly unsecured after the truck leaves the dock, which is a common occurrence when using common carriers and something the sender is mostly powerless to prevent. You can have thousands of dollars worth of safety equipment, all of which are useless unless if a human decides to ignore or override them.
Absolutely, well stated. Humans will always continue to show us new failures and new causes. How we respond to the opportunity keeps the journey interesting.Originally Posted by Jim Wynne
Many executive horses may be led to Deming's water and still not drink, I'm afraid. This is not to say that the old master's teachings aren't important and valuable, or that we shouldn't make a reasonable attempt to enlighten people. The fact is, though, that humans are massively complex beings and no one has yet found a way to keep them from shooting themselves in the foot, and doing so repeatedly in some cases. We need to devote our best efforts to reasonably reducing the chance for human error to negatively affect outcomes, while understanding that our best efforts will never keep humans from being human.
I'm not going to reply to your entire response because it's clear that we don't agree. I will make a friendly suggestion, however. You might want to reconsider your title, lest it be reduced to an unbecoming acronym.Joe Adams
Process Excellence Architect
I changed my mind.I'm not going to reply to your entire response because it's clear that we don't agree.
Neither you nor I may dictate what management chooses to do in these situations. Management might rationally decide to allow experienced people to do their jobs with a minimum of interference, including delegating the authority to determine the proper RPN scale to use. If a person is assigned by management to conduct a PFMEA, it should be safe to assume that the person is familiar with both the PFMEA process and the general principles of risk management.Management has the right to make that decision (but not the pFMEA team – management selected the Severity, Occurrence and Detection rates in their quality policy document that the pFMEA team were to use).
(Emphasis in the original)…if a human decides to ignore or override them.” – then it is not “Human error” or a tolerated risk. It is sabotage. You fire them and seek legal remedies.
Deming also made a point (one of fourteen) of telling management to "drive out fear." Making people fearful of making mistakes or holding the belief that humans don't make them doesn't help in that regard.Your management may wish to read Deming’s books. I sat through many of his weeklong training sessions and witnessed the “wrath” of Deming. He would point to the executives and ask them why they did not believe in quality (& lean) and why they blamed their workers.